Context
National planning in Zambia needed to consider energy development alongside river connectivity and freshwater conservation values. The work aimed to maximize energy provision while keeping river systems healthy.
Confluvio’s role
Confluvio developed national-scale hydropower configuration scenarios for Zambia with WWF-Zambia and stakeholders, using a system-scale planning approach. It was the country’s first national hydropower scenario assessment, starting in 2021.
Methods and data
The analysis used HydroSHEDS with the HydroROUT river routing model and WaterGAP discharge, the Connectivity Status Index to measure impacts, and multi-objective optimization to generate dam portfolios with the lowest environmental impact for added capacity. Two stakeholder workshops brought together WWF-Zambia, the Ministry of Energy, ZESCO, the National Heritage Conservation Commission, the Kafue Gorge Regional Training Centre, the Zambezi River Authority, the Ministry of Water, the Rural Electrification Authority and others. The assessment covered all rivers in Zambia, plus upstream and downstream areas.
Results
Confluvio handed WWF-Zambia a roadmap and three tools: a system-scale planning model that generates dam portfolios and evaluates their impact, a Portfolio Analysis Tool to compare portfolios, and a GIS environment to map them. Since December 2022 Confluvio has contributed to Zambia’s Integrated Resource Plan, analysing the environmental impact of proposed hydropower.